02/9/20

What If Trump Loses the 2020 Election?

Today, let’s imagine the future together. We will keep in mind everything that’s happened with this presidency since 2016. Let’s imagine the near future unfolding, informed by the events of the recent past.

The Run-up to the Election

As the year moves forward, Democratic candidates will continue to snipe at each other, doing some of Trump’s dirty work in tearing each other apart. We will have one viable candidate against Trump, but they will be bruised and battered by the gauntlet they traversed in order to secure the nomination.

From the vantage point of February, it will either be Bernie, Pete, or Warren. I’m hoping for Warren, but this prediction isn’t based on my wants. As it gets closer and closer to crunch time, either Pete or Warren will bow out gracefully. Bernie will hold out until the convention, even if it doesn’t look like he has a path to victory. He’ll make sure that the fight goes as long as it can go, just like he did in 2016, because he’s running for himself and not for the country.

Some of the Bernie supporters will continue to be monstrous, but Russian bots and social media propaganda will bolster them and make them seem even worse than they are. Putin seeks to complicate and ruin our election. He doesn’t really care which candidate wins the election as long as we’re in disarray. Money will flow into Facebook just as it did in 2016, Fox News will continue to misrepresent the truth to put a pro-Trump slant on everything, and those of us that are paying attention will feel like we’re in hell.

For anyone that values truth and integrity, this summer is going to suck.

The Election

In spite of all the propaganda, the Russian money, the Trump lies, the Fox News smears, and all of the other covert assaults on our democratic process, people will show up for this election in huge numbers.

Some people will show up because they’re tired of kids getting separated from their families at the border.

Some people will show up because the destruction of landmarks along the border in support of a border wall is the last straw. Mexico didn’t pay for it. The proof of the ineffectiveness of the wall is overwhelming. The cost cannot be justified. The inherent racism that is woven into into every slat and support of the wall is too much to swallow. Whatever the aspect, some people will find the wall itself to be a compelling reason to vote Trump out of office.

Some people that read the Mueller report, that paid attention during the Impeachment hearings, that have read the headlines about Trump lining his pockets at his resorts by charging his security detail $650/night… he’s done enough illegal or amoral activities from the White House that a good number of people will show up to vote because they know that right is right and wrong is wrong.

Some people will show up because they’re concerned about climate change, and they remember how Trump pulled us out of the Paris Climate Agreement. They remember how he shredded Obama legislation intended to fight climate change. They read the news, how the antarctic reached temperatures higher than Orlando this year, the highest ever recorded, and they know that we can’t trust Trump to lead us to a viable solution.

Some people will show up because they’re sick of the hypocrisy. They did as he said and “read the transcript” to find that Trump and his family attacked Biden over issues of nepotism, while Ivanka and Jared line their pockets in government money they’ve “earned” through nepotism.

Some people will show up because they are economists, and they can see how Trump’s tariffs and deficit spending is not promoting the economy, but hurting it. They know that the job growths are smaller than they should be, and in areas of industry that are not significant in contributing to GNP. They see that manufacturing jobs are actually down, that the indicators are pointing at a coming recession, and the responsible thing is to change course immediately. These people also know that for the last 25 years, the economy has taken a dive under Republican control, and recovered under Democratic control.

And yes… some people will show up because they genuinely like the candidate that made it through the gauntlet to vie for the Presidency.

Just like in 2016, Trump will lose the popular vote. But this time, Trump will lose too many of the key states he needs to secure his victory. It won’t be a landslide. It should be a landslide, but there are still too many people in the US that aren’t paying attention, and will simply vote for whichever candidate claims to be a Republican.

This November, after a record turn-out, the American people will demonstrate that the majority of them have a conscience and a soul, and they will vote Trump out of office.

But What Happens Next?

Unfortunately, this story doesn’t have a happy ending.

Trump will not concede.

Trump will refuse to leave the White House.

Trump will declare the election a sham. He’ll say it does not represent the will of the people. He will declare himself a winner and blame immigrants and illegals for inflating the numbers. He will state that the news media, the enemy of the people, were out to get him from the start and that they’re responsible for posting false results.

He will fire people that oppose him. He will call for investigations into his opponent, the one the American people dutifully and rightfully elected to be their next leader.

Trump lacks grace and refuses to admit when he’s wrong. He does not listen to criticism. When the American people state in a loud, clear voice, “We do not want you as our president,” do you really think he’ll listen?

As a people, we have given up civility. There will not be a reasonable, rational discussion about Trump’s refusal to leave the White House. His loyal followers will say he’s right, and they will be ready to show up with weapons and fight for him.

The courts will offer conflicting rulings. Trump has appointed so many Republican shills as federal judges over the last 3 years that it will be a crap-shoot as to how they will rule.

The truth won’t matter. The facts won’t matter. The Constitution does not matter and neither do our laws. Reasonable discourse will be drowned out by the shouting and the name calling and the threats.

We will fight. People will get hurt. Nationally, we’ll be less secure. Industries will grind to a halt. We will know poverty and hunger and strife like we haven’t known for a century.

Is It Really That Hopeless?

I’m describing a plausible scenario, but I’m also allowing pessimism and fear paint the scene with the bleakest colors possible.

I think I’ve described Trump’s reaction perfectly, based on his behavior the last 4 years. However, I may be underestimating the American people and the institutions we have in place.

We have to show up in numbers to vote Trump out. If we show up in sufficient numbers, if our voice is loud enough, even the die-hard Trump supports suckling off the Fox News teat will be unable to deny that he is no longer the President, and they’ll dismiss his lies and tantrums for what they are.

Then we can get back to trying to make the world a better, freer place.

02/4/20

Let’s Talk about Picard

I was tempted to talk about politics again tonight, but the internet is already on fire with what went down in Iowa, and with the State of the Union address. Reality seems pretty terrible right now, so how about a nice distraction by visiting the utopian society of Star Trek?

* Spoiler Warning *

Before I get too far into it, I want to give a quick warning that I will be getting into the details of the first two episode of Star Trek: Picard. If you have not watched the show yet and you want to experience it with as little foreknowledge as possible, this is where you should turn away.

You have been warned.

Let’s get into it.

Star Trek: Picard starts on Earth, opening with black-clad, masked combatants transporting into someone’s apartment. They use a knife to murder a sideways-blinking alien while trying to abduct a young woman.

… Okay, remember when I said we could all use a utopian distraction?

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I enjoyed the first and second episodes of this new show. It’s beautiful, familiar, with a great score and some fun action scenes. I appreciated all the callbacks to TNG. The show is good! Star Trek: Picard has been put together by people that know what they’re doing.

It does make me a little sad, though. The character of Picard always represented the best of Starfleet to me, with his integrity, his scientific approach, and his tendency to lead with diplomacy rather than violence. That’s what Starfleet and The Federation is supposed to be! That was Roddenberry’s dream.

Starfleet is no longer that. They turned their back on an entire species in need and let untold millions die. Starfleet is so bad that Picard, still the man of integrity and compassion, quit in a huff.

It’s hard to look at The Federation as the good guys anymore, which from my perspective, hits a little too close to home.

I’m also disappointed that androids are banned. They’re referring to them as synthetics, which… you know I just spent the last year and a half writing a novel called Synthetic Dreams, right?

Anyway, I was hoping to see a future where people like Data were common. I want to see a future where the children of mankind’s technology thrive and teach us how to be better people. Instead, they were co-opted by a mysterious, rogue organization.

Fear rules The Federation. It kept them from saving the Romulans when their star went nova. It keeps them from exploring the new life of synthetics. It hinders them from being their best self, which doesn’t sound much like a utopia at all.

It really must seem like I don’t like this show, but I do. I’m just disappointed because the future is not as bright as I hoped. That’s particularly difficult to swallow right now, when I’m trying to find hope wherever I can.

02/1/20

An Independent’s Look at Politics in 2020 – February Edition

Who I Am

Some friends and family probably think I’m a Democrat. I live in California, dislike Trump, McConnell, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, and a number of other Republican hucksters, and I espouse a number of progressive views. However, I’m registered as an Independent, and my perspective and viewpoint is shaped more by primary sources than falling in line with any particular ideology.

If you’re right-wing enough, I will appear to you as a bleeding-heart liberal. If you’re sufficiently left-wing, I may appear too conservative, and slow to commit to a generalized liberal agenda.

The forces within me that drive my decisions are this: integrity, empathy, and humility. I wish to stay true to myself and encourage others to stay true to themselves, even when I disagree with them. Integrity is about valuing honesty and acting accordingly.

Empathy is about trying to understand other people and respecting what they see. I try to look at things from other people’s perspective, and I try to understand how they came to their conclusions.

Humility, for me, is about keeping an open mind and acknowledging that I may be wrong. I don’t always have all the information, and sometimes the information I think I have is incorrect.

That’s who I am and where I’m coming from. I watch social media and I read the news, usually focusing on videos and documents that are primary sources. If someone tells me that Trump said something outrageous, I’ll find the video myself and listen to him. Sometimes the hot-take that got me there is overblown, and I acknowledge that. With Trump, it’s usually understated.

The Impeachment

Now that I’ve told you who I am, I’m going to tell you where we currently are. In a later next section, I’ll talk about where things are going.

The Senate Republicans, lead by Mitch McConnell, have used their majority to block witnesses in the Trump impeachment trial. McConnell made it clear before the trial started that he was going to work with The White House, and that the Republicans position was going to be in alignment with Trump’s. Then they all signed a document and swore to uphold impartial justice. Unlike me, integrity and honesty means nothing to McConnell, and he’s a powerful enough figure in the Senate to lead the other Republicans down a dark and dishonest path.

The acquittal isn’t in yet, but it’s all but certain. Many Republicans have acknowledged that Trump did what he was accused. He illegally blocked foreign assistance to an ally for the purpose of getting personal gain in the upcoming election, and he did everything he could to cover it up. These are impeachable offenses, equal or worse to what Nixon did.

The fear is that Trump will now be emboldened to do more or worse. The checks and balances have failed, thanks to the efforts of Mitch McConnell.

That’s where we are now. It’s bad. I don’t think we’ll know how bad until it comes time for the election.

Meanwhile…

Trump continues to hold continuous rallies, and people are showing up in droves and supporting him.

I do not understand these people. Mitch McConnell… I get it. He’s a villain, but I understand his motivations. He is not driven by integrity, empathy, or humility. He’s just greedy. Like the Trumps, McConnell’s family is making a lot of money off the government right now. McConnell is your run-of-the-mill soulless politician. I don’t like him, but I understand him.

But the Trump fans that show up at his rallies? I don’t understand them at all.

I want to think they are ignorant and not paying attention. I want to think that they’re living in a right-wing bubble, and the only news and information that they receive is the talk-show radio that hides the atrocities through omission or reframing. The kind of garbage Sean Hannity shovels on Fox News.

But what if they’re paying attention to the same videos I’m seeing and simply coming away with a different conclusion? I see Trump asking Russia and China and “anyone else that’s listening” for help in the next election which leads me to believe he is willing to compromise the good of the nation for his own personal gain. What are these other people seeing? A strong autocrat that’s a good politician on the world theater? Even though Trump impulsively killed an Iranian general at the start of the year as a way to distract from the Impeachment, and nearly sent us into another war? An action that resulted in bases with our troops getting attacked by Iran, resulting in dozens of brain injuries and a weakened position in The Middle East?

Yeah, I don’t understand that average Trump supporter at all. My empathy is failing me here. Is it because Trump gives lip service to conservative principles, and these Trump supporters are simply good church goers? Trump’s personal life and history demonstrates unequivocally that he is not a good Christian influence. He is the least Christ-like President we’ve ever had.

Christians falling for Trump… open your eyes to the scam. He thinks you’re gullible and pathetic, and if you continue to worship him, a man that cheated on his wife while she was pregnant and then paid off that woman $130,000 in order to cover it up… if you continue to close your eyes to his actions and fall in line behind him purely because you’re Republican… you have failed to learn some critical lessons from The Bible.

Where are We Going

This is an election year, and we’re about to be bombarded by a whole lot of people wanting us to vote for them. There is going to be a wave of disinformation and lies this year like nothing we’ve ever seen before. Some of those lies are going to come from Russia, because if it worked in 2016, and we did absolutely nothing about it for 2020, they won’t see any reason not to double their efforts in this new election.

Social Media is going to be an information war zone, a digital dystopia unlike anything we ever imagined. We thought Cyberpunk was going to be all about body modification, putting our minds up in a digital plane, and just trying to survive a world wholly owned by evil corporations. We got some of that right. The things we got wrong turned out worse.

This year, the United States is going to find out if we really are a democratic republic anymore.

Look, we’ve already failed as a democracy. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by millions. The Republicans, which represent the minority of Americans, are ruling right now. The people that voted for no new witnesses in the impeachment represent about 20 million people fewer than the people that wanted witnesses and documents.

Who do I Want for the Next President?

The most important thing we can do for the next election is remove Trump from office. He has demonstrated every day, in every video I’ve seen of him, in every decision he’s made, that he is unfit for office. He should not have been elected in 2016. He should not be reelected in 2020. If he is still president next year, he will continue to run the Presidency as a campaign, and he will try to stay in power in 2024. That will push us towards civil war.

I wish that was hyperbole. He’s already said things like that at his campaign rallies. I’ve seen the videos. I’ve heard it from his stupid mouth. And there are a few Republican senators (like Mitch McConnell) that have suggested that Trump should be allowed to run for a third term because the Democrats didn’t give him a chance in the first term.

NOTE: For those that may not have been paying attention, Republicans controlled the House and the Senate the first two years of Trump’s presidency. Any argument amount Democratics blocking Trump is hogwash, especially with Mitch McConnell sitting with hundreds of House passed measures on his desk.

So whoever is on the Democratic ticket this fall, I will vote for them. That is the only way that we’re going to get Trump out of office.

Of the Democratic candidates, which one do I want to win?

Warren. I wanted her to run 4 years ago, and I’m glad she’s running now. I like her planned approach. I think she’s intelligent, and even if I disagree with some of her ideas, I acknowledge that I might be wrong and am willing to go along with her plans to see if they pan out. I think she’s flubbed in the past over the Native American heritage, but if that’s the worst she’s done, we will all find that a refreshing change over what we have now.

What about Bernie?

If he’s on the ticket at the end I’ll vote for him, but I don’t like him for President anymore. I hope he has a good running mate because I’m unsure his health is going to hold out through to 2024. He recently had a heart issue. He was one of the oldest candidates ever 4 years ago. He hasn’t grown younger.

There are a lot of people supporting Bernie that are reprehensible. I don’t want to judge Bernie by their behavior, other than it would be nice if he brought his followers in line and admonished the more caustic members of his body.

I’m just not a fan of Bernie in general, based on how he ran against Clinton in 2016. He did not always deal with Clinton with integrity, and that makes me wary. I have reservations.

And Biden? Again, I’ll vote for him if I have to, but I think he’s not awesome. On issues, he’s more like what the Republicans used to be. In fact, he’d be great for the Republican party at this point.

As for the others, I don’t think they’re going to make it through the primaries. It doesn’t matter what I feel about them. Yang seems like he’s got some great supporters and some good ideas, but he hasn’t captivated the nation.

So, I’d very much like to see Warren sworn in next year. After that, I’d like to see the US invest more in healthcare and education, deescalate tensions overseas, and shift the trillion dollar defense budget into domestic programs. These are the things I hope for optimistically.

When I’m feeling pessimistic, I think Trump is going to get reelected and Russian money will continue to influence our foreign and domestic policies.