Yesterday, I went to Shut Up and Write mini-marathon, and I added another 2,000 words to The Psychic Out of Time, and it felt amazing. I’ve been having a hard time writing lately, and I felt a great deal of apprehension going in. The words came easily, though, and I like what I wrote. It will need some adjustment, but it’s good stuff.
I went into this morning with a lot of positivity, but as I read that Trump now plans on blockading the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran’s blockade, I’m worried.
Social media isn’t taking it very seriously. Lots of jokes. So many jokes. But I honestly think this could be the trigger for a much larger conflict.
The three largest exporters of oil are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US. Saudi Arabia exports about 50% more oil by volume than the US and Russia individually. While it may not be the majority of oil going through the Strait worldwide, it is a substantial amount of oil, and the biggest importers are China and Japan.
So, let’s put the jokes aside and look at this seriously.
The Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be international water. Iran blockading it breaks international law, and is not good. Extolling fees from people going through those waters is a problem for the world, but Iran is likely in a sympathetic position since it’s a retaliation to US aggression.
A US blockade of the Strait would have 2 main economic side effects. The first, which is what Trump is most likely looking at, is that it would strangle oil from the middle east, crippling that economy. They can’t sell oil that they can’t ship, and so a full third of their economy goes away. That’s devastating, and would make the US an even bigger enemy.
The second economic side effect is the impact to China. Around 55% of China’s oil imports are from the middle east, and China is the largest oil importer.
In one stroke, Trump makes enemies of the world. China will call Trump’s bluff, because it won’t stand to have half its oil supply removed. The interruption to China’s oil imports will impact China’s industry, raising the price of… well… everything, worldwide.
And it can all be laid at the feet of Trump, which congress still hasn’t removed.
If you want to piss off someone enough that they’ll start throwing punches, fuck with their money. That’s what a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will do. Trump is an idiot, and doesn’t see how interconnected we all are. How much we rely on each other.
Today is Sunday, and while I don’t do much with organized religion anymore, I still believe our calling is to love each other. The example (for me) is Jesus, loving everyone enough to die for their sins, even those that don’t deserve it. True, unconditional love, for everyone. It’s aspirational, and I fall short. Especially when I think of Donald Trump, who I truly cannot love.